Easy Bet: How Prediction Markets Will (Probably) Cause More Suicides

It’s either yes or no.

Granted, it’s too early to definitively say. But already there’s evidence that gambling addiction and suicide rates are intertwined. In a presentation to mental health clinicians, Dr. Jeremiah Weinstock said the “venn diagram is almost a complete circle overlap” for suicide and gambling disorder risk factors. Additionally, a 2023 study published in Addiction found that between 2000 and 2016, counties with more casinos per capita recorded higher rates of residents taking their own life.

However, things have changed since the year of Pokémon Go. In 2018, the Supreme Court expanded federal gambling laws, so the most accessible casino now is in your pocket, not your local gambling hall. Same goes for prediction market apps, which operate like gambling.

These deaths, and grief they bring, would be completely avoidable. Yet capitalism needs infinite growth, and financialization — the process of Wall Street’s growing power over the entire economy which helped usher prediction markets — must always create more victims. Tarek Mansour, co-founder and CEO of Kalshi, a prediction market company recently valued at $11 billion, says he wants to “financialize everything.” Sounds less like fintech hype and more like a threat.

says he wants to “financialize everything.” Sounds less like fintech hype and more like a threat.

It starts with two games: one in the real world, the other in your wallet.

The World’s a Loser, but You Can Still Win

Prediction markets can look like penny slots. Long-shot outcomes trades often start at $0.01. The minimum wager is always less than a dollar, representing the probability bettors collectively predict of something happening. Put another way, a penny-sized bet equals a 1% chance. But prediction market companies lure would-be gamblers on much bigger potential wins — provided you put more cash on the line.

Tragedies can be particularly lucrative. Take the example provided in an AI-generated Kalshi ad, aired during the 2025 NBA finals. A hurricane victim is shown being interviewed by ponchoed news anchor in the middle of the storm.

“How many hurricanes do you think we’ll have this year?”

One of her pupils consumes her eye (that’s AI for ya) as she clutches her dog and screams into the microphone. But hey, the bottom of the screen says you could turn $1,000 into $1,693. Score!

As such, these platforms transform climate change black pills and the like into “event contracts.” This technical term creates a regulatory loophole. What would otherwise look like a gamble is considered a financial derivative called a future. Traditionally, futures are agreements between two investors to buy stocks, bonds, or commodities at predetermined cost later on. This allows investors to protect (“hedge” in finance bro speak) their portfolio against asset price fluctuations. Futures also enable speculative investing, a key component of financialization.

As such, these platforms transform climate change black pills and the like into “event contracts.”

With this workaround, prediction markets are under the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s purview. Lighter regulation is the result, superseding states’ rights and Native American tribes’ sovereignty to govern gambling.

The “House” has Names and Addresses

While prediction markets employ different dynamics than traditional gambling spots, as odds are jointly set by all participants rather than the “house,” these platforms still have a clear power structure. Like Utah Phillips said, “The earth is not dying, it is being killed, and those who are killing it have names and addresses.” Similarly, certain people benefit most from prediction markets.

Donald Trump Jr. is one beneficiary. He’s an advisor for both Polymarket and Kalshi, and his venture capital firm has invested in Polymarket, too. It’s no wonder the Trump administration is providing legal cover for and collaborating with the industry. On February 12, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission announced its new Innovation Advisory Committee members. The aforementioned Kalshi CEO, Tarek Mansour, and soon-to-be mentioned Coinbase CEO, Brian Armstrong, are on it. Nearly all 35 members are either CEOs or higher-ups of a crypto, sportsbook, or investment company. None are consumer or public advocates.

The next beneficiaries are alleged insider traders and market manipulators.

Hours before the U.S. invaded Venezuela and captured President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, 2026, one Polymarket user wagered $32,000 that he’d be out by the end of the month. The trade generated over $404,000 in profit. The timing is suspicious, but there isn’t proof the bettor was someone with advanced knowledge of the illegal military operation.

On a similar note, Israel, notoriously unwilling to investigate itself for war crimes, arrested a military member and civilian for allegedly using secret intelligence to bet before its summer 2025 attacks on Iran.

Then there’s “mention market” manipulation. Bettors can wager on words within future speeches, shareholder calls, or even Mr. Beast videos. Brian Armstrong, CEO and co-founder of Coinbase, illustrated just how easy mention markets are to game.

“I was a little distracted because I was tracking the prediction market [Polymarket] about what Coinbase will say on their next earnings call,” Armstrong said during the company’s Q3 2025 call. “And I just want to add here the words Bitcoin, Ethereum, Blockchain, Staking, and Web3.”

And finally, the mainstream media is getting it on it as well, often under the guise of prediction markets’ accuracy. Outlets like CNN and CNBC agreed to incorporate Kalshi data into their coverage. Dow Jones, publisher of the Wall Street Journal, inked a contract with Polymarket to infuse its event likelihood percentages. And Substack users can embed Polymarket odds into their content.

Who’s Most at Risk

Financialization fuels many economic crises (see the Great Recession), but it isn’t a requirement. According to both Marxist principles and mainstream sources like Investopedia, capitalism will always undergo periodic crisis. This is already a recipe for premature deaths, preventable if not for our current system.

Numerous studies, like in PLOS and the Journal of Financial Research in 2017 and 2020, respectively, find that among other economic indicators, stock market decreases correlate with higher suicide rates, sometimes with a two-year lag; the time it takes for people to sink into their economic misery.

What makes prediction markets unique are its combination of investing risk and gambling harm.

As the National Council for Problem Gambling noted, prediction markets are “functionally gambling,” whether users or regulators acknowledge it. Perhaps not as problematic as when Robin Thicke sang it, but even Kalshi’s therapy platform partner, Birches Health, wrote there are “blurred lines” between prediction markets and betting, including in a comment under a Kalshi subreddit post where the OP explained why you should never bet on the platform.

Prediction market proponents muddy this connection. They insist that they provide accurate insights into respectable global happenings like elections. But in practice, trades tend to center a familiar pastime: sports betting. Nearly nine out of 10 Kalshi wagers and around half of Polymarket bets are on sports. Polymarket is listed as a sports app on the Apple store, not finance. And like sportsbook gamblers, most prediction market “investors” lose.

An analysis on the blockchain data site Dune showed that by February 26, out of the 2.2 million crypto wallets connected to Polymarket accounts, 82.7% experienced net losses. In other words, eight out of 10 spent more than they won on bets.

This puts young men, especially those of color, at elevated risk. A 2024 survey from Fairleigh Dickinson University indicated 26% of men under 30 place sports bets online, compared to 10% of adults overall. Young men are also three times more likely to report problem gambling behaviors. On top of that, other researchers found that people of color who exhibit problem gambling behaviors tended to bet earlier in life than white gamblers.

At the very least, casinos and sportbooks are barred from targeting people under 21 and must include information on gambling risks. But legally, prediction markets aren’t considered gambling, so they can advertise to a younger crowd.

Promotion campaigns show up during game broadcasts and Twitch streams, but they can also have an anti-capitalist tinge. Both Kalshi and Polymarket created free grocery stunts in New York City within two months of Mayor Zohran Mamdani entering office. Positive buzz ensued, including a tweet from the man himself.

There are Better Options

In 1964, long before blockchain-powered pseudo betting, Alan Wykes published “The Complete Illustrated Guide to Gambling.” He wrote, “Gambling is a way of buying hope on credit. We are all the bonded slaves of the management that issues the credit cards.”

“Gambling is a way of buying hope on credit. We are all the bonded slaves of the management that issues the credit cards.”

This doesn’t mean we should abolish gambling. If we have strong support networks and safety plans, vices can add needed spice to life with limited fallout. As Wykes demonstrated in his book, gambling is ancient. Capitalism, however, is only about 500 years old.

But betting under capitalism supercharges gambling’s (false) hope to solve your financial woes, provide material comforts, and have fun along the way. Prediction markets go on to disguise the world’s problems as your solutions. When greed is good, bad news is good news.

To combat the forces prediction markets represent, the Left must illuminate where real hope lies. As the Italian Marxist Antonio Gramsci often repeated from fellow leftist, Romain Rolland, “Pessimism of the intellect, optimism of the will.”

Because yes, everything is on fire. Traditional personal finance guidance says you can make it out just fine if you prepare individually, and a crucial step is so-called smart investing, which only pays when corporations successfully con global workers and consumers, thereby generating profit. Prediction markets, while certainly riskier than standard investing, are an extension of this idea — you can be in on the rigged game.

Instead, through revolutionary process we need to create a whole new game, where the proletariat wins and the bourgeoisie, the “house,” loses. This means cultivating third spaces, joining tenants’ and workers’ unions, training to fight collectively against the common enemy, and investing in community health. Like gambling, we won’t always win. But it will be much more rewarding to play.

If you or someone you know is having trouble with gambling, call the National Problem Gambling Helpline at 1-800-MY-RESET. If you’re experiencing a mental health crisis, dial or text 988.

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